Looking Forward to 2010

Posted on 2. December 2009 by HumanRaceHorses

Smartbrief on Workforce

Mary Ellen Slater at Smartbrief was kind enough to include me in a group of bloggers from the Smartbrief on Workforce Advsory Board that she is asking to write a piece detailing our personal look forward into 2010 regarding what issues might impact work and human resources next year. Unfortunately, she gave us a very, very tight deadline, so this is going to be an overview post, rather than a detailed one. I’ll flesh it out a bit more in December.

Looking back at 2009 – Once in a lifetime

Before I take a look forward, I need to take a quick look back to the beginning of 2009. Here is a quick review of topics I was thinking and writing about a year ago:

Economy

President Obama
Bailouts and policy issues
Survival/failure of the auto industry
Jobs
Corporate scandals

HR Topics

Layoffs
Resurgent labor unions
Employee Free Choice Act
HR and social media
The impact of the new administration on business

Personal

2009 HR conference schedule
vacation spots

Looking Forward to 2010 – same as it ever was!

Ironically, many of the same topics are still in the news today, albeit with different twists or themes. So, let’s take a look forward at 2010 which would be like 2009, only different!

President Barack Obama : His administration has faced many challenges, and seems to be juggling a multitude of tough issues in a fairly competent matter. The overall results have been erratic in year one. I look for more of the same in 2010, and I also look for them to reduce the scope of some of their initiatives during this mid-term election year. For HR, the biggest impact will come from the agency appointments he made during 2009. We will start to see their influence assert itself in 2010 from agencies like EEOC, OSHA, and NLRB, if they ever confirm a full board.
Bailouts – It is possible hat the bank and automotive are over, but there are other bailouts looming in 2010. One of the huge issues that employers will face in 2010 is the looming bailout that will be required for pension plans, including union multi-employer plans, underfunded plans for employers, and sooner later, even social security.
Survival or failure of GM – $50 billion dollars in US government loans, two CEO’s in 8 months, the UAW, unable to sell Opel, Saab or Saturn, and stuck with a tremendously unproductive and stubborn culture, GM is not even 50/50 to make through 2010. The shock waves will be big, but not as bad as they would have been in 2009!
Jobs – President Obama will be holding a jobs summit at the White House with 130 business leaders, union chiefs, academics, mayors and representatives of nonprofit group this week. At the same time, Congress is reportedly mulling another stimulus to create or save jobs. The first one didn’t work that well. The second one won’t either. Hopefully, the trend towards mild job growth in the private sector will continue.
Corporate scandals – The banks scandals seem to be behind us. Maddoff is in jail. Now we just have to worry about Dubai, credit card debt, Citi, GM, and the federal reserve running out of ink to print more money. I expect to see a few companies collapse in 2010 that will shock the economy, and make us ask: “How did we let that happen ? ” (again)
Layoffs – have leveled off, but will continue to be heavier than we need, but will be more industry sector and company specific. GM will be having another round of layoffs right after Christmas, if not before.
Labor unions – will continue to fight fr survival, but continue their slow plunge into obsolescence. Trumpka and Stern will be divided by their desire. AFL-CIO and Change to Win will remain divided, and clawing at each other. They will push for EFCA and other changes to relax rules, but it will only prolong the agony. Labor needs a new model in order to survive. They don’t know what it is right now.
Employee Free Choice Act – will be discussed and feared. Lawyers will make more money. Politicians will use it to get funding for one more election cycle. It will stay buried in the Senate.
Health care and the impact on business – is an unknown. Chances are it will not be as great as many people fear. The odds are much higher that individuals will hate the new plan (whatever it finally looks like) when they realize that it has directly impacted them in some way. That will probably be an impact from some form of health care rationing.
Social media and HR – will continue to get a lot of discussion. HR people will either embrace or fear it, but the utilization by HR people will be up at least 10% in 2010 over 2009. Maybe you will be the next one to get a Facebook page!

Stuck in neutral, but ready to roll

In many ways, it feels as if the profession is stuck in neutral due to the economy. That is going to change mid-year, when HR professionals will start seeing more job openings, a return of wages, the challenges coming our way from health care changes, and the increased enforcement activity and regulatory changes from various agencies with oversight of labor/workforce policy.

You’ll want to start getting ready for the June rush now! Goos luck!